CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-21T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29338/-1
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T14:44Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-22 01:00
 - Time at C2: 2024-02-21 18:36
 - Radial speed: 576.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W40
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 578.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-02-24 14:44 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.13 hours)
Lead Time: 49.45 hour(s)
Difference: 1.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-02-22T14:49Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement